BlueTerra's new CHP Barometer expects 3,300 full load hours for grid-supplying CHP in 2030. Last year that figure was still 2,700. So your gas engine will be needed for longer than expected, while the cost side is getting heavier.
Combined heat and power is not disappearing from the Dutch electricity system. That is the heart of the Spring 2026 CHP Barometer, which BlueTerra published on 23 July on behalf of Stichting Kennis in je Kas. The expected use of CHP towards 2035 comes out higher than a year earlier, and the main reason lies not in greenhouse horticulture itself but in the pace of the energy transition.
For business owners with a CHP unit this is news with two faces. The machine stays valuable and even becomes more important to the system. At the same time the tax charges and CO₂ costs are piling up, and it is exactly that pile-up which decides whether running it remains profitable. We have gone through the report and set out below what is changing and which choices that calls for in your procurement and your contracts.
BlueTerra models CHP use with its own market model, which determines hour by hour which sources are needed to meet electricity demand. The outcome for grid-supplying CHP is clearly above the previous edition, and 2035 stands out in particular. Where it was previously assumed that solar, wind and flexibility would push CHP use down sharply, that use now stays at a high level.
Source: Spring 2026 CHP Barometer, BlueTerra. Full load hours for grid-supplying CHP.
At growers using supplementary lighting the total number of running hours is higher than the grid supply shows, because part of the electricity is used on site. In 2030 that total comes to around 3,900 hours.
| Year | Grid-supplying CHP | Lit grower, grid supply | Lit grower, total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 | 3,000 hours | 1,800 hours | 3,500 hours |
| 2030 | 3,300 hours | 2,400 hours | 3,900 hours |
| 2035 | 2,700 hours | 1,800 hours | 3,100 hours |
Full load hours per year. The total for lit growers includes their own consumption.
A year has 8,760 hours. Full load hours are the hours an installation would clock up if it ran at full capacity the whole time. If the machine runs at half power, two real hours count as one full load hour. So 3,300 full load hours can mean 3,300 hours at full power, but equally 5,000 hours at two thirds power, and in practice it is nearly always the latter.
It makes the sums easy: capacity times full load hours gives the output. A 3 MWe CHP unit at 3,300 full load hours produces roughly 9,900 MWh of electricity. And it makes a small and a large machine comparable, because what counts is the utilisation and not the size.
The explanation lies in TenneT's 2026 Security of Supply Monitor. That assumes a slower transition path, in which meeting the European climate targets is no longer the starting point. The figures behind it are substantial:
Less solar and wind alongside growing demand means there will more often be hours in which demand cannot be covered by renewable output. At the same time dispatchable capacity such as coal plants is disappearing, and hardly any new dispatchable capacity is being added before 2030. Batteries do fill part of that gap, but they currently run for two to four hours. They are strong on short swings within a day and not on stretches of several days with little wind and sun. That is exactly where CHP is still needed.
The model shows that CHP will run more often at night and at weekends, and less automatically during the morning and evening peaks. Batteries at solar parks take over the short peaks. That is something to watch for the use of heat and CO₂: running at unusual times asks more of your buffer and your planning.
BlueTerra draws a conclusion that reaches beyond the individual business: CHP is not only a means of production for the owner, but also a component of the electricity system. Installed capacity in greenhouse horticulture grew in 2025 for the fifth year running, with 70 MWe added and 5 MWe decommissioned, so 65 MWe net. MWe stands for megawatt electrical: the capacity the engines can deliver as long as they are running, not the amount of electricity produced in a year. That would be measured in MWh, and follows from the capacity times the number of running hours. There are an estimated one thousand machines in the sector. Lead times for a new CHP unit have risen to more than three years, which makes holding on to existing capacity more important than adding new capacity.
That also changes where the value comes from. The shift is towards availability and longer deployment, and away from the fast seconds where batteries are strong. For the flexibility markets that means, concretely:
The first tenders for a capacity market are expected from 2028. Whether CHP in greenhouse horticulture can take part is not yet clear, because questions about aggregation, measurability and emission requirements are still open. The barometer does not factor it in, so that is an opportunity not yet included.
More running hours on paper mean little if running does not pay. And that is where it gets difficult. Since 1 January 2025 the input exemption for the natural gas going into the CHP unit has been restricted step by step, with a distinction between electricity you feed back to the grid and electricity you use yourself. On top of that, the reduced natural gas rate for greenhouse horticulture is being phased out up to and including 2035. From 2035 the reduced rate no longer exists.
| Reduced natural gas rate | 2026 | 2028 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brackets 1 and 2, up to 170,000 m³ | € 0.180 | € 0.276 | € 0.394 |
| Bracket 3, up to 1 million m³ | € 0.159 | € 0.212 | € 0.282 |
| Bracket 4, up to 10 million m³ | € 0.214 | € 0.239 | € 0.267 |
Rates in euros per m³, current prices per year. Source: annex F of the CHP Barometer, based on the 2024 Dutch Tax Plan and the Greenhouse Horticulture Climate Tax Measures Act.
On top of that tax trajectory come the CO₂ costs. BlueTerra models four policy variants, and the difference between them is large.
| Scenario | CO₂ incentive | Compensation | Picture up to 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current policy | CO₂ levy up to roughly € 17 per tonne in 2030 | Not applicable | Most favourable, lowest charges on gas use |
| Base scenario | CO₂ levy up to € 53.15 per tonne in 2030 | None | Under pressure when the spark spread is narrow |
| Government scenario | ETS2 from 2028 and green gas blending from 2027 | ETS2 discount and lower energy tax | Favourable, under five years |
| Government scenario without compensation | Same policy mix | None | Red, nine years or more |
The barometer colours stand for the payback period: green under five years, orange five to eight years, red nine years or more.
So the difference between the last two rows is not a detail, but the difference between green and red. And there is uncertainty in it: the compensation has been worked out up to and including 2030, but not beyond. BlueTerra assumes ETS2 compensation stays level after 2030 and that compensation for green gas is phased down to zero in 2035. Those are modelling assumptions, not settled policy. Anyone weighing up an investment or a major overhaul now is therefore calculating with a tail that is still politically open.
The phasing out of the input exemption and of the reduced horticultural rate makes the energy tax on your gas bill more complicated year after year. The taxed share of your gas consumption shifts, the correction factors per bracket rise and the split between grid supply and own consumption decides what ends up where. That is exactly the kind of calculation in which errors arise, and those errors are rarely in your favour on the invoice.
A CHP unit delivers dispatchable capacity close to demand, so at moments when the grid is heavily loaded you need to draw less from it. In areas with demand congestion that is valuable. But it works the other way too: if many installations feed back at the same time on the same market signal, that can actually increase the regional load.
The distribution is also uneven. In 132 of the 337 regional supply areas CHP is connected to the regional grid, and in a few horticultural areas the installed capacity is large relative to the available grid capacity. So whether your installation helps or hinders depends on your own area, on the capacity installed there and on how you control it. There is no good market solution for congestion management with CHP yet.
The barometer is a market analysis, not advice for your company. These are the points we are watching most closely in conversations with business owners right now.
More running hours means a larger gas volume and a stronger dependence on the ratio between the gas and power price. Check whether your procurement strategy, your clicks and your forward positions fit a higher running profile than you previously assumed.
The natural gas tax in brackets 1 and 2 goes from € 0.180 now to € 0.394 in 2030. Put that series into your budget, together with the phasing out of the input exemption, so you are not caught out afresh every year.
The distinction between taxed and untaxed gas, the correction factors per bracket and the settlement of grid feed-in are all prone to error. We check invoices as standard and reclaim amounts that have been overpaid.
The value is shifting to mFRR, intraday and availability. Not every party can combine market control with your growing requirements, your heat buffer and possibly a battery. Compare those terms as sharply as you compare your supply rate.
If the running times shift to nights and weekends, your profile on the connection changes. Check whether your offtake and feed-in capacity still match that, certainly in congested areas.
With lead times of more than three years for a new machine, keeping existing capacity running has become a strategic choice, not a technical side issue.
CHP will be needed for longer than expected and is becoming more important to security of supply across the whole of the Netherlands. Whether those machines also stay available is not a technical question but an economic one. With compensation on ETS2 and the blending obligation, the outlook up to 2030 stays favourable. If that compensation falls away, the barometer turns red and it becomes hard for business owners to justify investment and maintenance. For your own planning that means: work with scenarios, keep your procurement flexible and have your invoices checked now that the tax rules change every year.
CHP Barometer Spring 2026, Profitability and system role. BlueTerra, 23 July 2026, commissioned by Stichting Kennis in je Kas, part of the Kas als Energiebron programme. The report is in Dutch. Read the full report (pdf).
Additionally: TenneT's 2026 Security of Supply Monitor, the public report on the recalibration of the greenhouse horticulture CO₂ levy, and the Impact of Tax Measures on Greenhouse Horticulture calculation tool from Glastuinbouw Nederland.
This analysis is intended as general information and is not tax or business advice for your specific situation.
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